Two New Studies on the Impact of End-of-Cycle Ad Inundation Reveal Voter Reactions
PSG Consulting and Innovating for the Public Good Examine 2024 Battleground Advertising Trends
Washington, D.C. (December 2, 2024) — PSG Consulting and Innovating for the Public Good announced findings from two new surveys conducted with Hart Research and TargetSmart, capturing insights into the effectiveness of candidate advertising in battleground states during the last months of the 2024 presidential campaign.
The research aimed to answer a central question: What do voters experience or process during the last months of the presidential campaign when they are being inundated with ads not only from presidential candidates but all candidates on the ballot?
Uniquely, the studies utilized open-ended questions to capture voters’ experiences in their own words, focusing on what stood out, how they responded emotionally and the overall impact of the ads. Another unique feature of the research was using two firms simultaneously to look at different subsets of voters.
Research Methodology
- Ben Lazarus of TargetSmart surveyed 1,500 registered voters in battleground states by type of media market in which they lived: major; mid-sized; and markets covering two states, one a battleground and one not. The survey explored how voters saw the ads — traditional broadcast, cable/satellite or streaming services, with twice as many using streaming.
- Jay Campbell and Geoff Garin of Hart Research surveyed 558 swing voters in battleground states. Hart Research’s study assessed the penetration and impact of political advertising among swing voters in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. “Swing voters” was a broad definition that excluded very liberal, strong Democrats and very conservative, strong Republicans.
Key Findings
TargetSmart Study: Impact of Media Market and Ad Volume Among Registered Voters
- In each type of market, close to 100% of people saw ads. In open-ended questions about what they saw, the first was negativity (25%), with only 7% remembering any policy-focused ads.
- Among registered voters, the ads recalled about Harris — positive and negative, campaigns and third-party ads — had an overall negative impact on her. A larger share of these registered voters stated that they were somewhat or much less likely to vote for Harris after seeing ads about her during the campaign.
- Harris’ messages on the economy and abortion rights broke through; Trump ads broke through on immigration and the economy. Immigration ads against Harris were the ones remembered among swing voters.
- Trump ads had a largely positive impact in mid-sized and small media markets; the impact was more mixed in major markets among registered voters.
- Both Harris and Trump ads predominately elicited hope, but anger was the second emotion. Fear was not really an emotion that registered with many.
- Presidential ads overwhelmed ads about Congressional and other candidates.
Hart Research Study: Ad Impact on Swing Voters
- Among swing voters, a positive effect was seen from the ads about Harris, and they were memorable.
- Political ads engendered plenty of negative reactions but also some positive ones (hopefulness, a feeling of being informed).
- Despite their irritated reactions, many swing voters reported increased motivation to vote based on political ads, and even found negative advertising to be credible.
- Half of all swing voters (and even more who were leaning to Harris) saw at least one ad centered on an issue that is important to them.
These results suggest a rethinking of communications strategies. If a candidate can get past the “noise,” it is clear voters are seeking information about the candidates they don’t know or confirmation of what they believe.
“These one-of-a-kind research studies demonstrate that communication and advertising strategies need rethinking. It appears as if voters are experiencing one big word cloud of sound and fury,” said Page Gardner, Principal of PSG Consulting and Founder of Innovating for the Public Good.
“Our data suggests that the onslaught of advertising from both campaigns and their aligned IEs made it difficult for voters to parse out clear signals from the noise. While voters across these markets recall ads from the Harris campaign relevant to the economy and middle class, the full force of the advertising campaign did not elicit a clear sense of fear for what a second Trump term will look like for Americans,” said Ben Lazarus, Director of Research Solutions, TargetSmart.
To download the reports, visit: https://www.psgconsulting.com/research-publications/2024-political-advertising
Watch the PSG Consulting First Mondays Webinar, “2024 Political Advertising: What Broke Through?” for additional analysis from experts in the field: https://www.psgconsulting.com/videos/v/2024-political-advertising-what-broke-through
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About PSG Consulting and Its Founder Page Gardner
PSG Consulting offers a rare combination of visionary thinking, social entrepreneurship and data-driven management. Leading this charge is Page S. Gardner, a seasoned campaign and communications consultant, recognized as one of the nation’s top strategists. Gardner is known as an innovator, having identified an unrecognized demographic that revolutionized how strategists approach women voters. PSG Consulting’s team provides various services rooted in Page’s leadership in the electoral sphere, including Organizational Development, Sustainable Growth and Board Management, Strategic Guidance on Programs, Communications Strategies and Message Development, Campaign Management and Consulting, as well as Quantitative and Qualitative Research Designs. To keep up with Page and the work of PSG Consulting, visit our website and follow Page on X (Twitter), LinkedIn, Instagram and YouTube.
About Innovating for the Public Good
Innovating for the Public Good is a bold, new effort to understand, engineer and apply new approaches and tools that are needed to not only address the underlying dynamics that weaken U.S. democracy, but also promote a different, forward-looking future that is based on rigorous research and strategies that borrow from the private sector. innovatingforpublicgood.org
About Hart Research Associates
Hart Research Associates is one of the leading public opinion research firms in the United States. Founded in 1971, our firm has conducted well over 8,000 public opinion surveys, administered and analyzed interviews among more than three million individuals, and conducted over 7,500 focus groups. Since 1989, a highlight of Hart Research’s work has been our participation in regular public opinion polling for NBC News and the Wall Street Journal, a survey that is widely regarded as one of the key barometers of American public opinion. Our firm has become well known for its achievements in helping a diverse range of interests and membership organizations refine their approach to communications and outreach with targeted high-level populations, from Congressional Members and Hill staffers to officials within the administration. Over the course of four decades, Hart Research has built a reputation for conducting our projects with rigor, flexibility, and excellence. Our goal for every project is not just to give clients interesting results, but also to provide succinct, strategic, and actionable recommendations that clients can look to for years to come. hartresearch.com
About TargetSmart
TargetSmart is the leading provider of political data that enables campaigns and organizations to successfully communicate with large audiences through personalized outreach. Their politically-focused approach combines consumer data, analytics, data integration and consulting solutions for micro-targeted, multichannel marketing strategies. TargetSmart is part of the TARA Group LLC, a holding company with a successful track record of investing in independently operated data and marketing companies. targetsmart.com